2013 · Week 4

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·23

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 67°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

45

Model margin

+4.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBills
  • -0.096EPA / play-0.076
  • 36.3%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.037
  • 6.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.63CPOE-3.82
  • 36.0%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.33
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–BUF
BALQ1 15:00729Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:541064Field goal0–3
BALQ1 6:1133Turnover0–3
BUFQ1 5:29510Field goal0–6
BALQ1 3:0336Punt0–6
BUFQ1 0:58412Turnover0–6
BALQ2 14:49327Touchdown7–6
BUFQ2 13:55423Punt7–6
BALQ2 11:2738Punt7–6
BUFQ2 10:39570Touchdown7–13
BALQ2 8:4020Turnover7–13
BUFQ2 8:05428Touchdown7–20
BALQ2 6:5231Punt7–20
BUFQ2 5:5836Punt7–20
BALQ2 4:333-8Punt7–20
BUFQ2 3:0449Punt7–20
BALQ2 1:10555End of half7–20
BUFQ3 15:0031Punt7–20
BALQ3 13:0434Punt7–20
BUFQ3 11:5932Turnover7–20
BALQ3 11:163-6Turnover7–20
BUFQ3 10:22433Punt7–20
BALQ3 8:48465Touchdown14–20
BUFQ3 7:1748Punt14–20
BALQ3 5:55421Turnover14–20
BUFQ3 4:53844Field goal14–23
BALQ3 1:56513Punt14–23
BUFQ4 15:001246Turnover14–23
BALQ4 8:33474Field goal17–23
BUFQ4 7:1237Punt17–23
BALQ4 5:43438Field goal20–23
BUFQ4 4:0433Punt20–23
BALQ4 2:20615Turnover20–23
BUFQ4 0:5700End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/5034725

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice5173.40
Bernard Pierce471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith5121661
Deonte Thompson44500
Tandon Doss49470
Dallas Clark49340
Marlon Brown48341
Ed Dickson23120
Bernard Pierce1120
Ray Rice0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel10/2216712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson16875.41
C.J. Spiller23773.30
Trevor Graham11414.00
Robert Woods11313.00
Tashard Choice3113.70
EJ Manuel1110.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods48801
Trevor Graham23320
Scott Chandler23280
Lee Smith12280
Steve Johnson16-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.94