Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
45
Model margin
+4.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.076
- 36.3%Success rate39.7%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.037
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.63CPOE-3.82
- 36.0%Third-down rate33.7%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.33Points / drive1.33
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/50 | 347 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 12 | 166 | 1 |
| Deonte Thompson | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 10/22 | 167 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 23 | 77 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 11 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 4 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 6 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.94