Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play+0.186
- 49.4%Success rate47.8%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.298
- +0.053EPA / rush+0.029
- 12.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +4.67CPOE+0.64
- 47.9%Third-down rate45.6%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 2.80Points / drive2.90
- 1.0%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/25 | 254 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/22 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.25