2024 · DIV

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

25·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 19°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBills
  • +0.199EPA / play+0.186
  • 49.4%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.298
  • +0.053EPA / rush+0.029
  • 12.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +4.67CPOE+0.64
  • 47.9%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 2.80Points / drive2.90
  • 1.0%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL
2013 · W4BAL @ BUF20–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–BUF
BALQ1 15:00873Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:401170Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 4:432-1Turnover7–7
BUFQ1 3:5259Punt7–7
BALQ1 0:41954Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 11:05424Touchdown7–14
BALQ2 8:52857Field goal10–14
BUFQ2 3:431052Touchdown10–21
BALQ2 0:1600End of half10–21
BUFQ3 15:0031Punt10–21
BALQ3 13:48840Field goal13–21
BUFQ3 9:47618Punt13–21
BALQ3 5:21780Touchdown19–21
BUFQ3 1:37937Field goal19–24
BALQ4 12:04626Turnover19–24
BUFQ4 8:411047Field goal19–27
BALQ4 3:29888Touchdown25–27
BUFQ4 1:33117End of half25–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2525421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry16845.31
Justice Hill6508.30
Lamar Jackson6396.50
Mark Andrews231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely45731
Rashod Bateman45661
Mark Andrews57610
Tylan Wallace11270
Anthony Miller11160
Justice Hill2270
Steven Sims1140
Nelson Agholor0100
Derrick Henry0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/2212700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook17673.90
Ty Johnson5316.20
Ray Davis4297.31
Josh Allen10202.02

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir67670
James Cook33150
Mack Hollins12120
Dalton Kincaid12110
Curtis Samuel2290
Ty Johnson1180
Keon Coleman1150
Amari Cooper0100
Dawson Knox1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.25