Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play+0.035
- 37.8%Success rate45.8%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.143EPA / rush+0.003
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- -7.12CPOE-3.77
- 32.3%Third-down rate45.4%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.26Points / drive2.01
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6/15 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 5/18 | 24 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Murphy | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/34 | 236 | 3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1/4 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| John Brown | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06