2018 · Week 1

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Nathan Peterman

3·47

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

39

Model margin

+4.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRavens
  • -0.140EPA / play+0.035
  • 37.8%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.003
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -7.12CPOE-3.77
  • 32.3%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.26Points / drive2.01
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL
2013 · W4BAL @ BUF20–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–BAL
BALQ1 15:001291Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 8:423-4Punt0–7
BALQ1 7:1331Punt0–7
BUFQ1 6:2533Punt0–7
BALQ1 5:311138Touchdown0–14
BUFQ1 1:32412Punt0–14
BALQ2 14:033-3Field goal0–17
BUFQ2 13:1446Punt0–17
BALQ2 11:5840Turnover0–17
BUFQ2 10:153-4Missed field goal0–17
BALQ2 8:43413Punt0–17
BUFQ2 6:52410Turnover0–17
BALQ2 5:3838Field goal0–20
BUFQ2 4:1632Punt0–20
BALQ2 2:48985Touchdown0–26
BUFQ2 0:1318End of half0–26
BUFQ3 15:00514Turnover on downs0–26
BALQ3 13:48424Touchdown0–33
BUFQ3 12:283-1Turnover0–39
BALQ3 11:2611Touchdown0–40
BUFQ3 11:223-1Punt0–40
BALQ3 10:013-7Punt0–40
BUFQ3 8:091238Field goal3–40
BALQ3 2:38616Punt3–40
BUFQ4 14:35726Punt3–40
BALQ4 11:551394Touchdown3–47
BUFQ4 3:523-2Punt3–47
BALQ4 2:5538Punt3–47
BUFQ4 1:28746End of half3–47

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen6/157400
Nathan Peterman5/182402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Murphy6315.20
Josh Allen4266.50
LeSean McCoy7223.10
Chris Ivory331.00
Nathan Peterman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones36260
Logan Thomas12240
Jason Croom23180
Andre Holmes11140
Kelvin Benjamin17100
Jeremy Kerley2470
Charles Clay0200
Marcus Murphy0200
Robert Foster0200
LeSean McCoy13-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3423630
Lamar Jackson1/42400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Dixon13443.41
Lamar Jackson7395.60
Javorius Allen4174.31
Alex Collins7131.91
Joe Flacco231.50
John Brown111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead46491
John Brown34441
Nick Boyle36400
Michael Crabtree36381
Maxx Williams33320
Mark Andrews34310
Javorius Allen56150
Alex Collins1160
Chris Moore1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.06