2025 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

30·10

Jets

New York

QB Justin Fields

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

-6.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.145EPA / play-0.129
  • 48.8%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback-0.137
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.117
  • 11.0%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +3.77CPOE-4.21
  • 46.0%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 2.73Points / drive1.54
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:271373Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 7:2911Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 7:14514Field goal10–0
NYJQ1 5:01520Punt10–0
BUFQ1 2:33941Field goal13–0
NYJQ2 14:023-7Punt13–0
BUFQ2 11:45573Touchdown20–0
NYJQ2 8:50631Field goal20–3
BUFQ2 4:21947Punt20–3
NYJQ2 0:48534Punt20–3
BUFQ2 0:1000End of half20–3
BUFQ3 15:001064Field goal23–3
NYJQ3 9:0139Punt23–3
BUFQ3 6:561272Touchdown30–3
NYJQ4 14:573-9Punt30–3
BUFQ4 13:50311Punt30–3
NYJQ4 12:03822Punt30–3
BUFQ4 8:2332Punt30–3
NYJQ4 6:351054Touchdown30–10
BUFQ4 3:28210End of half30–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen14/2514800
Mitchell Trubisky1/23200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook211326.32
Josh Allen6599.80
Ray Davis9242.70
Ty Johnson263.00
Elijah Moore263.01
Mitchell Trubisky3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer23470
Dalton Kincaid46370
Elijah Moore11310
Keon Coleman33260
Dawson Knox25190
Khalil Shakir12120
Jackson Hawes1150
James Cook1130
Ty Johnson0100
Tyrell Shavers0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor7/115610
Justin Fields3/112700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields5499.80
Breece Hall10292.90
Tyrod Taylor3217.00
Braelon Allen2115.50
Arian Smith1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson48500
Breece Hall2390
Arian Smith1280
Isaiah Davis1360
Jeremy Ruckert1151
Mason Taylor1250
Tyler Johnson0100
Braelon Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.2%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.3%6.1%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

32.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-6.32