Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
-6.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play-0.129
- 48.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.137
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.117
- 11.0%Explosive rate6.5%
- +3.77CPOE-4.21
- 46.0%Third-down rate35.0%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.73Points / drive1.54
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 14/25 | 148 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/2 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 21 | 132 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 7/11 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 3/11 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.32