Closing spread
BUF -8
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play+0.097
- 35.6%Success rate48.4%
- -0.250EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.191EPA / rush+0.010
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -5.18CPOE+4.96
- 25.5%Third-down rate49.7%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.01Points / drive2.33
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 7/15 | 81 | 1 | 1 |
| Tim Boyle | 7/14 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/32 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 4 | 115 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.28