2023 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

6·32

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 40°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -8

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.230EPA / play+0.097
  • 35.6%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.191EPA / rush+0.010
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -5.18CPOE+4.96
  • 25.5%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.01Points / drive2.33
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
BUFQ1 14:533-9Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 13:314-8Punt0–3
BUFQ1 12:011358Field goal0–6
NYJQ1 5:56515Punt0–6
BUFQ1 2:181175Field goal0–9
NYJQ2 11:263-7Punt0–9
BUFQ2 9:55828Punt0–9
NYJQ2 6:02318Turnover0–9
BUFQ2 5:19618Touchdown0–16
NYJQ2 3:031269Touchdown6–16
BUFQ2 0:45717Turnover6–16
BUFQ3 15:00860Touchdown6–22
NYJQ3 10:3469Punt6–22
BUFQ3 7:24286Touchdown6–29
NYJQ3 6:29510Punt6–29
BUFQ3 3:1732Punt6–29
NYJQ3 2:17629Turnover6–29
BUFQ4 14:09521Punt6–29
NYJQ4 10:393-10Punt6–29
BUFQ4 9:33622Field goal6–32
NYJQ4 5:161030Turnover6–32
BUFQ4 2:30217End of half6–32

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson7/158111
Tim Boyle7/143301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall10232.30
Zach Wilson4153.80
Dalvin Cook2136.50
Israel Abanikanda11111.00
Tim Boyle111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall56501
Jeremy Ruckert34250
Tyler Conklin23180
Garrett Wilson2890
Xavier Gipson1270
Israel Abanikanda1250
Dalvin Cook0100
Allen Lazard0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen20/3227531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook17734.30
Latavius Murray10353.50
Josh Allen5153.00
Ty Johnson3113.70
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00
Deonte Harty1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir341151
Ty Johnson33471
Dalton Kincaid67460
James Cook34291
Stefon Diggs48270
Quintin Morris12110
Deonte Harty0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.28