Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.186
- 43.0%Success rate47.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.108EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.89CPOE+0.64
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 1.85Points / drive2.90
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 12/18 | 112 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 11/14 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 8 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/27 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 69 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26