2024 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

14·40

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 54°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BUF -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.186
  • 43.0%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.108EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.89CPOE+0.64
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.90
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001680Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 8:111253Turnover on downs0–7
BUFQ1 2:12730Punt0–7
NYJQ2 13:05762Turnover0–7
BUFQ2 8:471039Punt0–7
NYJQ2 3:162-3Safety0–9
BUFQ2 2:311042Field goal0–12
NYJQ3 15:00838Punt0–12
BUFQ3 11:3336Punt0–12
NYJQ3 9:5548Turnover0–12
BUFQ3 7:20538Touchdown0–19
NYJQ3 5:133-4Punt0–19
BUFQ3 3:05621Touchdown0–26
NYJQ3 1:151-10Turnover0–26
BUFQ3 1:08315Touchdown0–33
NYJQ3 0:123-4Punt0–33
BUFQ4 14:15365Touchdown0–40
NYJQ4 12:371383Touchdown8–40
BUFQ4 6:5949Turnover on downs8–40
NYJQ4 4:44858Touchdown14–40
BUFQ4 1:5514End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers12/1811202
Tyrod Taylor11/148320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall10454.50
Isaiah Davis33511.70
Braelon Allen6264.30
Tyrod Taylor263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson78661
Tyler Conklin88571
Davante Adams58470
Allen Lazard1390
Breece Hall1180
Isaiah Davis1180
Kenny Yeboah0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/2718220
Mitchell Trubisky1/16910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook15533.51
Josh Allen5173.41
Ty Johnson4164.00
Ray Davis691.50
Reggie Gilliam231.50
Mitchell Trubisky2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Shavers11691
Amari Cooper33561
Mack Hollins22330
Keon Coleman37271
Khalil Shakir36250
Dalton Kincaid22240
Ty Johnson1190
Dawson Knox1340
Ray Davis1140
Quintin Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26