2024 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

23·20

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

42

Model margin

-1.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.186EPA / play-0.001
  • 47.8%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.053
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.108
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.64CPOE-1.89
  • 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.85
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00754Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 11:061075Touchdown7–3
NYJQ1 6:12970Touchdown7–10
BUFQ1 2:0138Punt7–10
NYJQ1 0:25715Punt7–10
BUFQ2 12:061185Touchdown13–10
NYJQ2 6:54516Punt13–10
BUFQ2 2:491249Touchdown20–10
NYJQ2 0:21370Touchdown20–17
BUFQ3 15:00758Missed field goal20–17
NYJQ3 11:06945Field goal20–20
BUFQ3 6:1349Punt20–20
NYJQ3 4:25757Missed field goal20–20
BUFQ3 0:55416Punt20–20
NYJQ4 14:06856Missed field goal20–20
BUFQ4 9:441150Field goal23–20
NYJQ4 3:43810Turnover23–20
BUFQ4 1:52312End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/2521520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Davis20974.80
Ty Johnson4348.50
Josh Allen9182.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Davis33550
Dalton Kincaid67510
Curtis Samuel34440
Keon Coleman34260
Khalil Shakir22190
Dawson Knox11121
Mack Hollins1281

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3529421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall181136.30
Braelon Allen382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard671141
Garrett Wilson8101071
Breece Hall56560
Tyler Conklin23100
Jeremy Ruckert2370
Mike Williams0300
Braelon Allen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.85