Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
42
Model margin
-1.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play-0.001
- 47.8%Success rate43.0%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.053
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.64CPOE-1.89
- 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.90Points / drive1.85
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/25 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/35 | 294 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 18 | 113 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 7 | 114 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 10 | 107 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.85