Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.111
- 39.1%Success rate49.0%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- -4.97CPOE+0.35
- 34.3%Third-down rate51.1%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.41Points / drive2.48
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 27/44 | 268 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1/3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/27 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.96