2022 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mike White

12·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 36°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.111
  • 39.1%Success rate49.0%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.064
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -4.97CPOE+0.35
  • 34.3%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.48
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:29730Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:27516Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:03626Punt0–0
BUFQ1 3:1944Punt0–0
NYJQ1 2:263-9Punt0–0
BUFQ1 1:29928Punt0–0
NYJQ2 12:02518Punt0–0
BUFQ2 8:3442Punt0–0
NYJQ2 6:46727Punt0–0
BUFQ2 3:04859Touchdown0–7
NYJQ2 0:2614End of half0–7
NYJQ3 15:001072Touchdown7–7
BUFQ3 9:59755Touchdown7–14
NYJQ3 7:20619Turnover7–14
BUFQ3 4:30534Field goal7–17
NYJQ3 2:0743Punt7–17
BUFQ4 15:00421Field goal7–20
NYJQ4 12:23824Punt7–20
BUFQ4 8:2631Safety9–20
NYJQ4 7:30540Turnover9–20
BUFQ4 5:3430Punt9–20
NYJQ4 3:13855Field goal12–20
BUFQ4 1:1835Punt12–20
NYJQ4 0:4640Turnover on downs12–20
BUFQ4 0:2600End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike White27/4426800
Joe Flacco1/3100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight17714.21
Michael Carter551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson67780
Elijah Moore610600
Denzel Mims35350
Tyler Conklin58280
Braxton Berrios13250
Corey Davis11150
Michael Carter36150
C.J. Uzomah1270
Bam Knight2260

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/2714710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen10474.71
Devin Singletary8394.90
Isaiah McKenzie177.00
James Cook461.50
Nyheim Hines133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox47411
Stefon Diggs35370
Gabe Davis34310
Isaiah McKenzie35210
James Cook1190
Nyheim Hines1140
Devin Singletary1240
John Brown0100
Khalil Shakir0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.96