2022 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

17·20

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -11

Total

46

Model margin

-2.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.086
  • 49.0%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.35CPOE-4.97
  • 51.1%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.41
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
BUFQ1 15:00342Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:1138Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:211467Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 4:39634Field goal7–3
BUFQ1 0:31514Punt7–3
NYJQ2 13:51535Punt7–3
BUFQ2 10:42993Touchdown14–3
NYJQ2 6:301375Touchdown14–10
BUFQ2 0:32538Missed field goal14–10
NYJQ3 15:001457Turnover14–10
BUFQ3 6:212-7Turnover14–10
NYJQ3 5:30419Touchdown14–17
BUFQ3 4:031142Field goal17–17
NYJQ4 13:3332Punt17–17
BUFQ4 12:34819Punt17–17
NYJQ4 7:531281Field goal17–20
BUFQ4 1:4359Turnover on downs17–20
NYJQ4 0:2400End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/3420502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen9869.62
Devin Singletary8243.00
James Cook4153.80
Isaiah McKenzie199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs510930
Gabe Davis25330
Dawson Knox34250
Devin Singletary45240
James Cook24180
Isaiah McKenzie23120
Jake Kumerow0100
Nyheim Hines0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson18/2515410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter12766.31
James Robinson13483.70
Zach Wilson5244.80
Ty Johnson2178.50
Garrett Wilson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson89920
C.J. Uzomah33160
Denzel Mims14120
Michael Carter11100
Tyler Conklin1270
Braxton Berrios1260
Jeff Smith1160
James Robinson2251

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -113.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.01