Closing spread
BUF -11
Total
46
Model margin
-2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.086
- 49.0%Success rate39.1%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.35CPOE-4.97
- 51.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 2.48Points / drive1.41
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/34 | 205 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 86 | 9.6 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/25 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.01