Closing spread
BUF -12.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+13.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.145
- 40.5%Success rate48.8%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.039
- 6.5%Explosive rate11.0%
- -4.21CPOE+3.77
- 35.0%Third-down rate46.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.54Points / drive2.73
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 11/22 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brady Cook | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Williams | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Quentin Skinner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/29 | 259 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 21 | 151 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 |
| James Cook | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Keleki Latu | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
81.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+13.41