2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

10·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 36°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

BUF -16

Total

43

Model margin

+7.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.091
  • 42.1%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -7.25CPOE+1.95
  • 37.8%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.52
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 10:4239Punt0–7
BUFQ1 9:001360Field goal0–10
NYJQ1 2:31420Punt0–10
BUFQ1 0:1646Turnover on downs0–10
NYJQ2 13:265-6Punt0–10
BUFQ2 10:0739Punt0–10
NYJQ2 8:0431Punt0–10
BUFQ2 7:0536Punt0–10
NYJQ2 5:22450Touchdown7–10
BUFQ2 3:5139Punt7–10
NYJQ2 3:033-5Punt7–10
BUFQ2 1:391071Field goal7–13
NYJQ3 15:0039Punt7–13
BUFQ3 12:30623Punt7–13
NYJQ3 11:0032Punt7–13
BUFQ3 9:5247Punt7–13
NYJQ3 8:313-8Punt7–13
BUFQ3 6:2536Punt7–13
NYJQ3 5:263-9Field goal10–13
BUFQ3 3:55745Punt10–13
NYJQ3 0:3065Punt10–13
BUFQ4 12:33751Touchdown10–20
NYJQ4 8:213-5Punt10–20
BUFQ4 7:24746Touchdown10–27
NYJQ4 3:533-10Punt10–27
BUFQ4 3:12213End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson7/208710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Wilson22412.00
Michael Carter9192.10
Tevin Coleman561.20
Ty Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole33541
Jamison Crowder11160
Tarik Black12100
Tyler Kroft1350
Jeff Smith1320
Tevin Coleman0100
Ty Johnson0100
Denzel Mims0200
Michael Carter0300

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/4523920
Mitchell Trubisky1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary19884.61
Josh Allen56312.60
Isaiah McKenzie11010.00
Zack Moss581.60
Mitchell Trubisky3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs914811
Dawson Knox35490
Gabe Davis314390
Cole Beasley45310
Devin Singletary22241
Jake Kumerow11150
Isaiah McKenzie1190
Zack Moss2260
Reggie Gilliam0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +167.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.94