Closing spread
BUF -16
Total
43
Model margin
+7.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.091
- 42.1%Success rate47.4%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -7.25CPOE+1.95
- 37.8%Third-down rate47.6%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.70Points / drive2.52
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 7/20 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tarik Black | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/45 | 239 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 14 | 81 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 14 | 39 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.94