Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.230
- 48.4%Success rate35.6%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.250
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.96CPOE-5.18
- 49.7%Third-down rate25.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 2.33Points / drive1.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 29/41 | 236 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 13 | 102 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/21 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 127 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.95