2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

16·22

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Nothing filed.

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.230
  • 48.4%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.250
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +4.96CPOE-5.18
  • 49.7%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 2.33Points / drive1.01
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ
2021 · W18NYJ @ BUF10–27BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
BUFQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:30629Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:241060Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 3:05615Punt3–0
BUFQ2 14:5432Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 13:02488Field goal3–3
BUFQ2 10:351175Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 4:43312Turnover10–3
BUFQ2 3:08834Field goal13–3
NYJQ2 0:1700End of half13–3
NYJQ3 15:001150Field goal13–6
BUFQ3 8:59834Turnover13–6
NYJQ3 4:08419Punt13–6
BUFQ3 2:1038Punt13–6
NYJQ3 0:3336Punt13–6
BUFQ4 14:11828Turnover13–6
NYJQ4 9:43857Touchdown13–13
BUFQ4 4:5510Turnover13–13
NYJQ4 4:51715Field goal13–16
BUFQ4 1:48853Field goal16–16
NYJQ4 0:0200End of half16–16
BUFOT33Opp touchdown16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen29/4123613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook12463.80
Josh Allen6366.00
Latavius Murray284.00
Deonte Harty144.00
Damien Harris133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs10131021
Gabe Davis24320
Dalton Kincaid44260
Dawson Knox34250
James Cook46170
Damien Harris22160
Latavius Murray1290
Deonte Harty3490

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson14/2114011
Aaron Rodgers0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall1012712.70
Dalvin Cook13332.50
Michael Carter166.00
Zach Wilson461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard24460
Garrett Wilson55341
Dalvin Cook33260
Breece Hall12200
Michael Carter22120
Tyler Conklin1120
Randall Cobb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.95