2025 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

21·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BUF -12.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.021EPA / play+0.145
  • 42.1%Success rate48.8%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.028EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.1%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +1.82CPOE+3.77
  • 34.1%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.73
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
MIAQ1 15:001152Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 8:31865Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 4:0437Punt7–7
BUFQ1 2:241063Touchdown7–14
MIAQ2 11:5431Punt7–14
BUFQ2 10:44852Missed field goal7–14
MIAQ2 6:031671Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 0:0810End of half14–14
BUFQ3 15:00969Touchdown14–21
MIAQ3 10:233-1Punt14–21
BUFQ3 8:4437Punt14–21
MIAQ3 6:3335Punt14–21
BUFQ3 5:32615Punt14–21
MIAQ3 2:581072Touchdown21–21
BUFQ4 12:18950Touchdown21–28
MIAQ4 7:17942Turnover21–28
BUFQ4 3:00639Field goal21–31
MIAQ4 0:22327End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa22/3414621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane12625.20
Ollie Gordon II9384.21
Malik Washington22010.00
Tua Tagovailoa2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill510491
Jaylen Waddle56391
De'Von Achane79290
Tanner Conner12130
Malik Washington35120
Julian Hill1140

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/2821330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook191085.71
Josh Allen4256.30
Ty Johnson3134.30
Elijah Moore11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid56661
Khalil Shakir44451
Elijah Moore23300
Tyrell Shavers22240
Keon Coleman34200
James Cook33100
Ty Johnson1280
Josh Palmer1150
Jackson Hawes1151
Ray Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.46