Closing spread
BUF -12.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play+0.145
- 42.1%Success rate48.8%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.028EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.1%Explosive rate11.0%
- +1.82CPOE+3.77
- 34.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.92Points / drive2.73
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/34 | 146 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 10 | 49 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/28 | 213 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46