Closing spread
BUF -8.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play-0.021
- 48.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.016
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.028
- 11.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.77CPOE+1.82
- 46.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.73Points / drive1.92
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28/40 | 306 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 15/21 | 173 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 22 | 174 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.81