2025 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

13·30

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -8.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.145EPA / play-0.021
  • 48.8%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback-0.016
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.028
  • 11.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.77CPOE+1.82
  • 46.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.73Points / drive1.92
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 13:3339Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:161277Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 4:49622Turnover on downs0–7
MIAQ1 1:16351Touchdown0–13
BUFQ2 14:5230Punt0–13
MIAQ2 13:4538Punt0–13
BUFQ2 11:33655Turnover0–13
MIAQ2 9:02967Field goal0–16
BUFQ2 3:033-3Punt0–16
MIAQ2 1:09414Punt0–16
BUFQ2 0:4337End of half0–16
BUFQ3 15:001677Turnover0–16
MIAQ3 5:59639Punt0–16
BUFQ3 2:00898Touchdown6–16
MIAQ4 12:36612Turnover6–16
BUFQ4 8:55544Turnover6–16
MIAQ4 7:10262Touchdown6–23
BUFQ4 6:311165Touchdown13–23
MIAQ4 3:36337Touchdown13–30
BUFQ4 3:1732Punt13–30
MIAQ4 1:0400End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen28/4030621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook13534.10
Josh Allen4317.80
Mitchell Trubisky144.00
Ty Johnson122.00
Elijah Moore1-1-1.00
Ray Davis2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir79580
Keon Coleman38461
Dawson Knox34370
Dalton Kincaid23370
Jackson Hawes12261
Ty Johnson22240
James Cook55240
Tyrell Shavers11240
Curtis Samuel11210
Elijah Moore2290
Ray Davis1200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa15/2117322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane221747.92
Jaylen Wright5173.40
Malik Washington144.00
Tua Tagovailoa2-1-0.50
Ollie Gordon II1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle57841
De'Von Achane66510
Greg Dulcich14220
Malik Washington2391
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.81