2024 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

31·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.186EPA / play-0.040
  • 47.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.089
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.246
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.64CPOE+3.08
  • 45.6%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.92
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0069Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 12:16637Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 9:491080Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 3:2139Punt7–7
MIAQ1 2:00313Turnover7–7
BUFQ1 0:41619Field goal10–7
MIAQ2 12:41417Punt10–7
BUFQ2 10:54875Touchdown17–7
MIAQ2 6:25519Turnover on downs23–7
BUFQ2 3:45149Touchdown24–7
MIAQ2 3:361254Field goal24–10
BUFQ2 0:0400End of half24–10
BUFQ3 15:00517Punt24–10
MIAQ3 12:10519Opp touchdown31–10
MIAQ3 9:271455Turnover on downs31–10
BUFQ3 2:40520Punt31–10
MIAQ4 14:14626Turnover on downs31–10
BUFQ4 11:47614Missed field goal31–10
MIAQ4 7:541159Turnover on downs31–10
BUFQ4 2:02210End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen13/1913910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook11787.12
Ray Davis9293.20
Josh Allen221.00
Khalil Shakir122.00
Ty Johnson1-1-1.00
Mitchell Trubisky2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir55540
Ty Johnson12330
Dalton Kincaid44330
James Cook11171
Curtis Samuel1230
Mack Hollins0100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Keon Coleman0100
Ray Davis11-10

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa17/2514513
Skylar Thompson8/148000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane22964.40
Tua Tagovailoa2178.50
Tyreek Hill11212.00
Jaylen Waddle144.00
Skylar Thompson144.00
Jaylen Wright540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
De'Von Achane77691
Jonnu Smith67530
Jaylen Waddle44410
Tyreek Hill36240
Grant DuBose13130
Jeff Wilson22120
Durham Smythe1180
Robbie Chosen1450
Braxton Berrios0100
Julian Hill0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.37