Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play-0.040
- 47.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.246
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.64CPOE+3.08
- 45.6%Third-down rate35.4%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.90Points / drive1.92
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/19 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/25 | 145 | 1 | 3 |
| Skylar Thompson | 8/14 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Grant DuBose | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.37