2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

19·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

54

Model margin

-0.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.054
  • 49.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.35CPOE+0.08
  • 51.1%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
BUFQ1 15:001071Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 9:03613Punt7–0
BUFQ1 6:373-5Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 5:1346Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 3:371475Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 11:59983Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 6:45730Punt14–14
MIAQ2 3:4767Punt14–14
BUFQ2 1:38745End of half14–14
MIAQ3 15:00421Punt14–14
BUFQ3 13:021992Field goal17–14
MIAQ3 3:4038Punt17–14
BUFQ3 2:00560Missed field goal17–14
MIAQ4 14:09875Touchdown17–21
BUFQ4 10:051783Turnover on downs17–21
MIAQ4 1:463-1Safety19–21
BUFQ4 1:33846End of half19–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen42/6340020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen8475.90
Zack Moss44611.50
Devin Singletary9131.40
Isaiah McKenzie166.00
James Cook133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Singletary911781
Isaiah McKenzie79761
Stefon Diggs711740
Gabe Davis36370
James Cook45370
Dawson Knox44250
Reggie Gilliam23220
Quintin Morris22220
Jake Kumerow22140
Jamison Crowder1390
Zack Moss1160

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa13/1818610
Teddy Bridgewater0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds6213.52
Raheem Mostert8111.40
Jaylen Waddle199.00
Tua Tagovailoa100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle461020
Tyreek Hill24330
Durham Smythe33230
River Cracraft11111
Chase Edmonds1160
Mike Gesicki1160
Trent Sherfield1150
Raheem Mostert0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.57