Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
54
Model margin
-0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.054
- 49.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.35CPOE+0.08
- 51.1%Third-down rate37.6%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 2.48Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 42/63 | 400 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 13/18 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 6 | 102 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.57