2022 · WC · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Skylar Thompson

31·34

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 27°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -14

Total

44

Model margin

+11.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.6%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.064
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.08CPOE+0.35
  • 37.6%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00738Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 11:5632Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:57573Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 7:5722Turnover0–7
BUFQ1 7:20518Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 5:07615Punt0–14
BUFQ1 2:371057Field goal0–17
MIAQ2 12:46938Field goal3–17
BUFQ2 7:34322Turnover3–17
MIAQ2 6:01723Field goal6–17
BUFQ2 2:1532Punt6–17
MIAQ2 1:32313Field goal9–17
BUFQ2 1:15311Turnover9–17
MIAQ2 0:53418Touchdown17–17
BUFQ2 0:33554Field goal17–20
MIAQ2 0:0410End of half17–20
MIAQ3 15:0031Punt23–20
BUFQ3 14:071-17Opp touchdown24–20
BUFQ3 13:59629Punt24–20
MIAQ3 11:1634Punt24–20
BUFQ3 10:153-2Punt24–20
MIAQ3 8:463-9Turnover24–20
BUFQ3 7:29533Touchdown24–27
MIAQ3 5:18413Punt24–27
BUFQ3 4:14568Touchdown24–34
MIAQ3 2:071267Touchdown31–34
BUFQ4 10:533-3Punt31–34
MIAQ4 9:5435Punt31–34
BUFQ4 8:23632Punt31–34
MIAQ4 4:24739Turnover on downs31–34
BUFQ4 2:22310End of half31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Skylar Thompson18/4522012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson10232.31
Jaylen Waddle188.00
Tyreek Hill252.50
Salvon Ahmed530.60
Skylar Thompson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill715690
Salvon Ahmed35450
Jaylen Waddle37440
Durham Smythe11200
Mike Gesicki26151
Cedrick Wilson Jr.11140
Jeff Wilson14130
Trent Sherfield0200
Hunter Long0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3935232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary10484.80
James Cook12393.31
Josh Allen4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs791140
Gabe Davis691131
Khalil Shakir35510
Cole Beasley25351
Dawson Knox35201
Quintin Morris11120
Nyheim Hines1270
John Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +146.2%2.2%3.0%4.7%3.4%3.6%3.1%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

78.3%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.73
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+11.80