Closing spread
BUF -14
Total
44
Model margin
+11.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.111
- 44.6%Success rate49.0%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.064
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.08CPOE+0.35
- 37.6%Third-down rate51.1%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.11Points / drive2.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylar Thompson | 18/45 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 15 | 69 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/39 | 352 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| James Cook | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
78.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+7.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.80