Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.111
- 44.6%Success rate49.0%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.064
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.08CPOE+0.35
- 37.6%Third-down rate51.1%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.11Points / drive2.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/30 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 17 | 136 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 114 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 13 | 69 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Braylon Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 25/40 | 304 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 77 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 8 | 98 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06