2022 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

29·32

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 29°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

44

Model margin

+4.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.6%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.064
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.08CPOE+0.35
  • 37.6%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
MIAQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:06528Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:441357Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 2:59475Touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 1:05468Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 14:471280Touchdown6–14
MIAQ2 8:181075Touchdown13–14
BUFQ2 2:591567Touchdown13–21
BUFQ3 15:0036Punt13–21
MIAQ3 13:39373Touchdown19–21
BUFQ3 12:48642Punt19–21
MIAQ3 10:05623Punt19–21
BUFQ3 6:5732Punt19–21
MIAQ3 5:29635Touchdown26–21
BUFQ3 2:30510Punt26–21
MIAQ3 0:5137Punt26–21
BUFQ4 14:4710Turnover26–21
MIAQ4 14:39418Field goal29–21
BUFQ4 11:56771Touchdown29–29
MIAQ4 9:02532Punt29–29
BUFQ4 5:561468Field goal29–32

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa17/3023420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert171368.00
Salvon Ahmed6437.21
Tua Tagovailoa177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle371141
Tyreek Hill913691
Cedrick Wilson Jr.12210
Raheem Mostert12200
Mike Gesicki1150
Trent Sherfield0100
Braylon Sanders0100
Durham Smythe11-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen25/4030440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen10777.70
Devin Singletary13423.20
James Cook5346.80
Stefon Diggs1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox68981
Stefon Diggs59600
Gabe Davis46560
Devin Singletary34280
Isaiah McKenzie25240
Quintin Morris11141
Nyheim Hines11101
Cole Beasley1190
James Cook2351

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.06