Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
53
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.097
- 47.3%Success rate48.4%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.009EPA / rush+0.010
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.40CPOE+4.96
- 42.5%Third-down rate49.7%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.34Points / drive2.33
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/35 | 282 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 6 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/25 | 320 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| James Cook | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 120 | 3 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35