2023 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

20·48

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 70°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

53

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.097
  • 47.3%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.009EPA / rush+0.010
  • 11.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.40CPOE+4.96
  • 42.5%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.33
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00860Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:41872Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 6:301080Touchdown7–14
MIAQ1 1:10770Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 12:47741Touchdown14–21
MIAQ2 10:0248Punt14–21
BUFQ2 7:42427Punt14–21
MIAQ2 5:2838Punt14–21
BUFQ2 3:51259Touchdown14–28
MIAQ2 2:5837Turnover14–28
BUFQ2 2:143-4Field goal14–31
MIAQ2 1:3936Punt14–31
BUFQ2 0:0700End of half14–31
MIAQ3 15:001175Touchdown20–31
BUFQ3 9:30660Field goal20–34
MIAQ3 5:2120Turnover20–34
BUFQ3 5:03425Touchdown20–41
MIAQ3 3:00520Turnover on downs20–41
BUFQ3 0:39245Touchdown20–48
MIAQ4 14:55863Turnover on downs20–48
BUFQ4 11:5230Punt20–48
MIAQ4 10:091064Turnover on downs20–48
BUFQ4 5:30525End of half20–48

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa25/3528211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane810112.62
Tyreek Hill11414.00
Braxton Berrios11111.00
Raheem Mostert791.30
Tua Tagovailoa273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill35580
Jaylen Waddle45460
Braxton Berrios66431
Durham Smythe44410
Raheem Mostert35360
De'Von Achane35190
Cedrick Wilson Jr.12160
Robbie Chosen0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen21/2532040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray4328.00
Damien Harris6294.80
James Cook12292.41
Josh Allen4174.31
Kyle Allen3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs671203
Gabe Davis33611
James Cook11480
Dalton Kincaid45270
Latavius Murray22240
Trent Sherfield23180
Dawson Knox11120
Deonte Harty22100
Khalil Shakir0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35