2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

21·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.097EPA / play+0.095
  • 48.4%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.167
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +4.96CPOE+4.40
  • 49.7%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.33Points / drive2.34
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00519Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 12:431279Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 5:58850Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:29654Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 0:101180Touchdown0–7
BUFQ2 8:51780Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 4:31969Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 1:431073End of half7–14
BUFQ3 15:00819Punt7–14
MIAQ3 9:5639Punt7–14
BUFQ3 7:421459Turnover7–14
MIAQ3 0:12531Opp touchdown14–14
MIAQ4 13:4231Punt14–14
BUFQ4 12:08874Touchdown21–14
MIAQ4 7:1633Punt21–14
BUFQ4 6:141137Turnover on downs21–14
MIAQ4 1:53513Turnover21–14
BUFQ4 1:1300End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen30/3835922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen15674.50
James Cook13362.80
Leonard Fournette7202.90
Ty Johnson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir661050
Stefon Diggs78870
Dalton Kincaid78840
Trent Sherfield34241
Dawson Knox23221
James Cook34160
Deonte Harty11120
Ty Johnson1190
Gabe Davis0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa17/2717312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane10565.61
Jeff Wilson9455.00
Tua Tagovailoa177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill713821
Durham Smythe33300
Cedrick Wilson Jr.13240
River Cracraft11180
Braxton Berrios2290
De'Von Achane1150
Chase Claypool1230
Julian Hill1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.06