Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.095
- 48.4%Success rate47.3%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.167
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- +4.96CPOE+4.40
- 49.7%Third-down rate42.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.33Points / drive2.34
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30/38 | 359 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| James Cook | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/27 | 173 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 13 | 82 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.06