Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.186
- 44.3%Success rate47.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.246EPA / rush+0.029
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.08CPOE+0.64
- 35.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 1.92Points / drive2.90
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/28 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 8 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 25/39 | 235 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 70 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 10 | 32 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| James Cook | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04