2024 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

27·30

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 54°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.186
  • 44.3%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.246EPA / rush+0.029
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +3.08CPOE+0.64
  • 35.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.90
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF
2022 · W3BUF @ MIA19–21MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:25512Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:27615Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 6:30839Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 1:19859Turnover3–3
MIAQ2 11:4114102Touchdown10–3
BUFQ2 3:201541Field goal10–6
MIAQ2 0:0700End of half10–6
MIAQ3 15:00329Turnover10–6
BUFQ3 13:431164Touchdown10–12
MIAQ3 7:20960Field goal13–12
BUFQ3 2:59270Touchdown13–20
MIAQ3 2:07975Touchdown20–20
BUFQ4 12:141166Touchdown20–27
MIAQ4 6:181181Touchdown27–27
BUFQ4 1:3887Field goal27–30
MIAQ4 0:051-24End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa25/2823120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane12635.31
Raheem Mostert10565.60
Jaylen Wright6183.00
Malik Washington199.00
Tua Tagovailoa231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill45800
De'Von Achane88581
Jonnu Smith56460
Raheem Mostert22320
Odell Beckham Jr.33150
Durham Smythe1140
Jaylen Waddle22-41

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen25/3923531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook10444.40
Ty Johnson3237.70
Ray Davis4205.00
Josh Allen273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Davis22701
Khalil Shakir67500
Dalton Kincaid410320
Mack Hollins55301
James Cook56250
Keon Coleman12210
Dawson Knox1250
Quintin Morris1121
Curtis Samuel0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.04