Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.145
- 44.5%Success rate48.8%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.060EPA / rush+0.039
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.0%
- -1.09CPOE+3.77
- 39.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.23Points / drive2.73
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/34 | 250 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/26 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 27 | 114 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.06