2025 · Week 9

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

21·28

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBills
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.145
  • 44.5%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.060EPA / rush+0.039
  • 7.2%Explosive rate11.0%
  • -1.09CPOE+3.77
  • 39.4%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.73
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001279Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 8:0033Punt0–7
BUFQ1 6:59623Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ1 4:17848Touchdown7–7
BUFQ2 14:5635Punt7–7
KCQ2 12:47636Field goal10–7
BUFQ2 9:27680Touchdown10–14
KCQ2 6:39621Turnover on downs10–14
BUFQ2 4:12760Touchdown10–21
KCQ2 1:33666Field goal13–21
BUFQ2 0:0300End of half13–21
KCQ3 15:0033Punt13–21
BUFQ3 13:23835Punt13–21
KCQ3 8:38624Punt13–21
BUFQ3 5:31874Touchdown13–28
KCQ3 1:341166Touchdown21–28
BUFQ4 11:32716Punt21–28
KCQ4 6:46620Turnover21–28
BUFQ4 4:18833Missed field goal21–28
KCQ4 0:22418End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes15/3425001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt11494.51
Xavier Worthy177.00
Brashard Smith372.30
Rashee Rice263.01
Patrick Mahomes155.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice47800
Marquise Brown24730
Travis Kelce45660
Xavier Worthy37230
Kareem Hunt1260
JuJu Smith-Schuster1120
Noah Gray0100
Tyquan Thornton0100
Brashard Smith0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/2627310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook271144.20
Josh Allen6193.22
Ty Johnson284.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid661011
Khalil Shakir78430
Dawson Knox11300
Elijah Moore11280
Jackson Hawes12180
Keon Coleman22170
Ty Johnson22120
James Cook11110
Tyrell Shavers1170
Curtis Samuel1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.06