2020 · CON

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

24·38

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

54.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.169EPA / play+0.177
  • 50.4%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.056
  • 10.7%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +6.29CPOE+2.60
  • 49.9%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.85
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
BUFQ1 15:00942Field goal3–0
KCQ1 11:2736Punt3–0
BUFQ1 9:58626Punt9–0
BUFQ1 6:1913Touchdown9–0
KCQ1 6:141480Touchdown9–7
BUFQ2 14:16511Punt9–7
KCQ2 12:26582Touchdown9–14
BUFQ2 9:3537Punt9–14
KCQ2 8:31977Touchdown9–21
BUFQ2 4:121173Field goal12–21
KCQ2 0:1100End of half12–21
KCQ3 15:00948Field goal12–24
BUFQ3 10:481067Field goal15–24
KCQ3 5:49573Touchdown15–31
BUFQ3 3:291255Turnover15–31
KCQ4 13:111158Touchdown15–38
BUFQ4 7:361063Touchdown21–38
KCQ4 4:0800Field goal21–38
BUFQ4 4:06416Field goal24–38
KCQ4 3:14519End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen28/4828721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen78812.60
Devin Singletary6172.80
T.J. Yeldon3155.00
Isaiah McKenzie294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley79880
Stefon Diggs611770
Dawson Knox68421
T.J. Yeldon45410
John Brown24240
Devin Singletary2390
Isaiah McKenzie1161
Gabe Davis0300

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/3832530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams13524.01
Mecole Hardman15050.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire671.21
Patrick Mahomes551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill9111720
Travis Kelce13151182
Byron Pringle35220
Darrel Williams1190
Mecole Hardman2341
Nick Keizer0100
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.21