Closing spread
KC -3
Total
54.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.177
- 50.4%Success rate50.2%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.0%
- +6.29CPOE+2.60
- 49.9%Third-down rate49.5%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.78Points / drive2.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28/48 | 287 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 7 | 88 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/38 | 325 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 50 | 50.0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 11 | 172 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 13 | 15 | 118 | 2 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Nick Keizer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.21