2024 · CON

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

29·32

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -1.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.186EPA / play+0.071
  • 47.8%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.058
  • 9.5%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +0.64CPOE+2.51
  • 45.6%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.90Points / drive2.36
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
BUFQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:01990Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 8:561044Field goal3–7
KCQ1 3:45735Turnover3–7
BUFQ1 0:571167Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 10:251159Touchdown10–14
BUFQ2 4:1330Punt10–14
KCQ2 3:39634Touchdown10–21
BUFQ2 1:55868Touchdown16–21
KCQ2 0:2300End of half16–21
KCQ3 15:00929Punt16–21
BUFQ3 10:011280Touchdown22–21
KCQ3 2:5630Punt22–21
BUFQ3 1:56924Turnover on downs22–21
KCQ4 12:55559Touchdown22–29
BUFQ4 10:14970Touchdown29–29
KCQ4 6:15736Field goal29–32
BUFQ4 3:33617Turnover on downs29–32
KCQ4 1:54529End of half29–32

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/3423720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook13856.52
Josh Allen11393.50
Ty Johnson6193.20
Ray Davis242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins34731
James Cook33490
Khalil Shakir67460
Amari Cooper44330
Dalton Kincaid24130
Keon Coleman14120
Dawson Knox1170
Curtis Samuel1341
Ty Johnson1100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes18/2624510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt17643.81
Patrick Mahomes11433.92
Xavier Worthy2168.00
Isiah Pacheco5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy67851
JuJu Smith-Schuster23600
Marquise Brown35350
Travis Kelce24190
Samaje Perine11170
Isiah Pacheco22120
DeAndre Hopkins12110
Kareem Hunt1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.03