Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play+0.071
- 47.8%Success rate47.7%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.142
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.058
- 9.5%Explosive rate5.8%
- +0.64CPOE+2.51
- 45.6%Third-down rate48.6%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.90Points / drive2.36
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/34 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 18/26 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.03