2021 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

38·20

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

57

Model margin

+0.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.140
  • 47.4%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.95CPOE+2.81
  • 47.6%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.66
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
KCQ1 15:001862Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 8:31875Touchdown7–3
KCQ1 4:3600Punt7–3
BUFQ1 4:2949Punt7–3
KCQ1 2:551380Touchdown7–10
BUFQ2 10:00575Touchdown14–10
KCQ2 7:4537Punt14–10
BUFQ2 5:46662Field goal17–10
KCQ2 3:13533Turnover on downs17–10
BUFQ2 1:50268Touchdown24–10
KCQ2 1:16849Field goal24–13
BUFQ2 0:0200End of half24–13
BUFQ3 15:0038Punt24–13
KCQ3 13:36517Punt24–13
BUFQ3 10:49441Punt24–13
KCQ3 8:29516Opp touchdown31–13
KCQ3 7:121052Turnover31–13
BUFQ3 2:5430Punt31–13
KCQ3 1:14834Touchdown31–20
BUFQ4 13:421478Touchdown38–20
KCQ4 5:511142Turnover38–20
BUFQ4 3:27523End of half38–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2631530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen11595.41
Zack Moss11373.40
Devin Singletary6254.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox341171
Stefon Diggs25690
Zack Moss34550
Emmanuel Sanders35542
Gabe Davis11160
Cole Beasley1250
Tommy Sweeney1110
Devin Singletary12-20

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes33/5427222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes8617.60
Darrel Williams5275.40
Tyreek Hill11515.00
Clyde Edwards-Helaire7131.90
Jerick McKinnon122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mecole Hardman912760
Tyreek Hill713630
Travis Kelce610571
Darrel Williams35180
Jerick McKinnon22130
Josh Gordon11110
Byron Pringle22111
Clyde Edwards-Helaire12110
Demarcus Robinson1280
Blake Bell1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.58