Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
54
Model margin
+0.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.140
- 47.4%Success rate51.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.95CPOE+2.81
- 47.6%Third-down rate52.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.52Points / drive2.66
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/37 | 329 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 8 | 10 | 201 | 4 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 33/44 | 378 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 13 | 150 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.50