2021 · DIV

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

36·42

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

54

Model margin

+0.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.140
  • 47.4%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.95CPOE+2.81
  • 47.6%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.66
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
BUFQ1 15:001371Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:031174Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 2:26924Punt7–7
KCQ2 11:5936Punt7–7
BUFQ2 10:3136Punt7–7
KCQ2 8:431381Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 1:52775Touchdown14–14
KCQ2 0:37638Missed field goal14–14
KCQ3 15:001364Field goal14–17
BUFQ3 7:0139Punt14–17
KCQ3 4:49561Touchdown14–23
BUFQ3 2:06175Touchdown21–23
KCQ3 1:56729Punt21–23
BUFQ4 13:26412Punt21–23
KCQ4 11:2835Field goal21–26
BUFQ4 8:551775Touchdown29–26
KCQ4 1:54575Touchdown29–33
BUFQ4 1:02675Touchdown36–33
KCQ4 0:13244Field goal36–36
KCOT875Touchdown36–42

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen27/3732940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen11686.20
Devin Singletary10262.61
Isaiah McKenzie3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis8102014
Cole Beasley68600
Devin Singletary45250
Emmanuel Sanders11160
Dawson Knox2490
Reggie Gilliam2280
Stefon Diggs3670
Isaiah McKenzie1130

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes33/4437830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes7699.91
Clyde Edwards-Helaire7608.60
Mecole Hardman23115.51
Jerick McKinnon10242.40
Tyreek Hill1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill11131501
Travis Kelce89961
Jerick McKinnon57540
Byron Pringle57291
Mecole Hardman11260
Noah Gray22140
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1290
Demarcus Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.50