Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
54
Model margin
+2.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.179
- 49.0%Success rate50.6%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.019
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.35CPOE+3.02
- 51.1%Third-down rate49.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.48Points / drive2.71
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/40 | 329 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 13 | 148 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/40 | 338 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 5 | 113 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 108 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.18