2022 · Week 6

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

24·20

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

54

Model margin

+2.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.179
  • 49.0%Success rate50.6%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.019
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.35CPOE+3.02
  • 51.1%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.71
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
BUFQ1 15:00962Turnover0–0
KCQ1 9:471580Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 3:161069Field goal3–0
KCQ2 13:32779Touchdown3–7
BUFQ2 11:311249Turnover on downs3–7
KCQ2 6:3339Punt3–7
BUFQ2 4:2733Punt3–7
KCQ2 3:231020Punt3–7
BUFQ2 1:29798Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 0:16228Field goal10–10
KCQ3 15:001051Missed field goal10–10
BUFQ3 10:15659Touchdown17–10
KCQ3 7:02783Touchdown17–17
BUFQ3 2:44729Turnover on downs17–17
KCQ4 14:12838Field goal17–20
BUFQ4 9:4940Punt17–20
KCQ4 7:363-1Punt17–20
BUFQ4 5:311276Touchdown24–20
KCQ4 1:0420Turnover24–20
BUFQ4 0:5116End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen27/4032930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary17855.00
Josh Allen12322.70
James Cook284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs10131481
Gabe Davis36741
Dawson Knox33371
Devin Singletary45220
Reggie Gilliam33180
Khalil Shakir12140
Isaiah McKenzie2590
Tommy Sweeney1170

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/4033822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire9333.70
Patrick Mahomes4215.30
Isiah Pacheco294.50
Travis Kelce144.00
Jerick McKinnon210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster551131
Travis Kelce8101080
Mecole Hardman34421
Jerick McKinnon33290
Skyy Moore13240
Noah Gray33130
Isiah Pacheco2290
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0300
Justin Watson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.18