Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.097
- 43.8%Success rate48.4%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.010
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.52CPOE+4.96
- 44.9%Third-down rate49.7%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.33
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 17/23 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 97 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 75 | 2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/39 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 2 |
| James Cook | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+2.29