2024 · Week 11

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

21·30

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 50°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBills
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.186
  • 47.7%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.058EPA / rush+0.029
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.51CPOE+0.64
  • 48.6%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.90
  • 1.2%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BUF
KCQ1 15:0027Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 14:15865Touchdown0–6
KCQ1 10:003-1Punt0–6
BUFQ1 8:22618Punt0–6
KCQ1 5:201188Touchdown7–6
BUFQ2 14:531065Touchdown7–13
KCQ2 10:083-9Punt7–13
BUFQ2 9:0647Turnover7–13
KCQ2 7:25940Touchdown14–13
BUFQ2 2:511162Field goal14–16
BUFQ3 15:0033Punt14–16
KCQ3 14:0639Punt14–16
BUFQ3 11:43617Punt14–16
KCQ3 7:54741Punt14–16
BUFQ3 3:541161Touchdown14–23
KCQ4 12:511166Touchdown21–23
BUFQ4 7:531270Touchdown21–30
KCQ4 2:17618Turnover21–30
BUFQ4 1:0700End of half21–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3319632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14604.30
Mecole Hardman199.00
Xavier Worthy177.00
Carson Steele122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy45611
DeAndre Hopkins34290
Justin Watson22260
Noah Gray45232
Mecole Hardman23120
Peyton Hendershot11110
Travis Kelce2480
Samaje Perine2480
JuJu Smith-Schuster1180
Carson Steele1150

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen27/4026211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen12554.61
James Cook9202.22
Ty Johnson5183.60
Ray Davis5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir812700
Curtis Samuel56581
Amari Cooper23550
Dawson Knox46400
Mack Hollins22270
James Cook5670
Zach Davidson1150
Ty Johnson0100
Quintin Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.46