Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.186
- 47.7%Success rate47.8%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.058EPA / rush+0.029
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.51CPOE+0.64
- 48.6%Third-down rate45.6%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 2.36Points / drive2.90
- 1.2%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/33 | 196 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 5 | 23 | 2 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/40 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 1 |
| James Cook | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 8 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Davidson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46