2023 · Week 14

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

20·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -2

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.097EPA / play+0.021
  • 48.4%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.082
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +4.96CPOE+1.52
  • 49.7%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.33Points / drive1.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBUF @ KC24–38KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
KCQ1 15:00845Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 11:30413Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:39511Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:07653Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 3:4337Punt7–0
BUFQ1 2:191273Touchdown14–0
KCQ2 11:50941Punt14–0
BUFQ2 8:26836Turnover14–0
KCQ2 3:361067Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 1:19831End of half14–7
BUFQ3 15:001067Field goal17–7
KCQ3 8:38975Touchdown17–14
BUFQ3 3:3037Punt17–14
KCQ3 1:47522Turnover17–14
BUFQ3 0:333-8Punt17–14
KCQ4 14:46749Field goal17–17
BUFQ4 11:31814Punt17–17
KCQ4 7:5333Punt17–17
BUFQ4 6:571243Field goal20–17
KCQ4 1:54726Turnover on downs20–17
BUFQ4 0:5500End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/4223311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook10585.80
Josh Allen10323.21
Ty Johnson5193.80
Latavius Murray393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Cook55831
Dawson Knox33360
Deonte Harty11250
Stefon Diggs411240
Latavius Murray11210
Dalton Kincaid58210
Khalil Shakir11120
Trent Sherfield1290
Ty Johnson2220
Gabe Davis0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/4327111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire11393.50
Jerick McKinnon4194.81
Kadarius Toney2168.00
Patrick Mahomes188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce610830
Rashee Rice710721
Clyde Edwards-Helaire24290
Kadarius Toney34250
Marquez Valdes-Scantling24220
Jerick McKinnon33180
Justin Watson11180
Richie James1240
Skyy Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.40