Closing spread
KC -2
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.021
- 48.4%Success rate43.8%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.96CPOE+1.52
- 49.7%Third-down rate44.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.33Points / drive1.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/42 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 5 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 11 | 24 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/43 | 271 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 10 | 72 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.40