2025 · Week 13

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

26·7

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.145EPA / play+0.027
  • 48.8%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.046
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.001
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.77CPOE+0.58
  • 46.0%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.73Points / drive2.11
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–PIT
BUFQ1 15:00740Turnover0–0
PITQ1 11:11612Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:31745Punt0–0
PITQ1 3:1936Punt0–0
BUFQ1 1:4136Punt0–0
PITQ1 0:06513Punt0–0
BUFQ2 13:52620Turnover0–0
PITQ2 10:32639Touchdown0–7
BUFQ2 8:091565Field goal3–7
PITQ2 0:51217End of half3–7
PITQ3 15:001-9Opp touchdown10–7
PITQ3 14:4443Turnover10–7
BUFQ3 13:16856Touchdown16–7
PITQ3 8:4939Punt16–7
BUFQ3 7:221583Touchdown23–7
PITQ4 14:081073Turnover on downs23–7
BUFQ4 10:111357Field goal26–7
PITQ4 1:0733End of half26–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2312311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook321444.50
Ray Davis9626.90
Josh Allen8384.81
Ty Johnson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Cook33330
Dawson Knox34280
Ty Johnson35200
Brandin Cooks11130
Jackson Hawes11100
Keon Coleman2391
Gabe Davis1250
Khalil Shakir1450

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers10/2111700
Mason Rudolph0/3001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren10353.51
Kenny Gainwell5204.00
Kaleb Johnson231.50
Aaron Rodgers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Washington24450
DK Metcalf35320
Kenny Gainwell23250
Jaylen Warren2490
Jonnu Smith1260
Ben Skowronek0100
Calvin Austin III0200
Roman Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.26