Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play+0.027
- 48.8%Success rate44.1%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.046
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.001
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.77CPOE+0.58
- 46.0%Third-down rate40.4%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.73Points / drive2.11
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/23 | 123 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 32 | 144 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 10/21 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.26