Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
37
Model margin
+0.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.136
- 41.8%Success rate38.5%
- +0.020EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.257
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.62CPOE-1.51
- 35.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/25 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devlin Hodges | 23/38 | 202 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 5 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tevin Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61