2019 · Week 15

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

17·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Devlin Hodges

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

37

Model margin

+0.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.136
  • 41.8%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.257
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.62CPOE-1.51
  • 35.9%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.35
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–PIT
BUFQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:13828Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 8:50516Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:0930Punt0–0
BUFQ1 3:45940Touchdown7–0
PITQ2 14:22636Field goal7–3
BUFQ2 11:26726Punt7–3
PITQ2 7:5730Punt7–3
BUFQ2 6:21614Turnover7–3
PITQ2 2:2820Turnover7–3
BUFQ2 1:53312End of half7–3
PITQ3 15:00767Touchdown7–10
BUFQ3 11:18643Turnover7–10
PITQ3 9:013-6Punt7–10
BUFQ3 6:4847Punt7–10
PITQ3 4:46621Turnover7–10
BUFQ3 1:2460Field goal10–10
PITQ4 12:2337Punt10–10
BUFQ4 10:03669Touchdown17–10
PITQ4 7:5530Punt17–10
BUFQ4 7:3036Punt17–10
PITQ4 5:13963Turnover17–10
BUFQ4 1:5436Punt17–10
PITQ4 1:31613Turnover17–10
BUFQ4 0:0600End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen13/2513911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary21874.10
Josh Allen7284.01
Frank Gore10151.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown710990
Tyler Kroft11141
Dawson Knox11110
Andre Roberts1270
Cole Beasley1660
Devin Singletary2320
Patrick DiMarco0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Devlin Hodges23/3820214

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner8425.30
Kerrith Whyte155.00
Devlin Hodges144.00
Benny Snell210.50
Jaylen Samuels2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington511830
Diontae Johnson57620
Nick Vannett56400
James Conner4591
Jaylen Samuels1150
Zach Gentry1140
Tevin Jones0200
Deon Cain0100
Johnny Holton22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.61