Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.169
- 44.0%Success rate50.4%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.90CPOE+6.29
- 42.1%Third-down rate49.9%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.12Points / drive2.78
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/37 | 187 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| James Washington | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/43 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 14 | 130 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 8 | 19 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58