2020 · Week 14

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

15·26

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 35°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -2

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.169
  • 44.0%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.90CPOE+6.29
  • 42.1%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.78
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
PITQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:0136Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:43415Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:33415Turnover0–0
PITQ1 9:2236Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:4438Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:15832Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:1267Punt0–0
PITQ2 14:41634Punt0–0
BUFQ2 11:44520Turnover0–0
PITQ2 9:36327Touchdown7–0
BUFQ2 8:2133Punt7–0
PITQ2 6:3731Punt7–0
BUFQ2 4:56943Field goal7–3
PITQ2 1:42417Opp touchdown7–9
PITQ2 0:5226End of half7–9
BUFQ3 15:00868Touchdown7–16
PITQ3 10:233-9Punt7–16
BUFQ3 9:07457Touchdown7–23
PITQ3 7:0236Punt7–23
BUFQ3 5:32519Punt7–23
PITQ3 1:561178Touchdown15–23
BUFQ4 12:181126Field goal15–26
PITQ4 8:0736Turnover15–26
BUFQ4 7:111264End of half15–26

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3718722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner10181.80
Jaylen Samuels4153.80
Benny Snell3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster67551
Diontae Johnson47400
Eric Ebron25300
James Washington36291
Jaylen Samuels34180
Chase Claypool36150
Vance McDonald0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/4323821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss13433.30
Devin Singletary7324.60
Josh Allen6284.70
Stefon Diggs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs10141301
Cole Beasley510410
Dawson Knox47340
Gabe Davis38191
Isaiah McKenzie11120
Devin Singletary1120
Zack Moss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.58