2023 · WC

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

17·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 17°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -10

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.097
  • 42.3%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.069EPA / rush+0.010
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.21CPOE+4.96
  • 37.3%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.33
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
PITQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:351080Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 7:0236Punt0–7
BUFQ1 5:2138Punt0–7
PITQ1 4:2118Turnover0–13
BUFQ1 4:15129Touchdown0–14
PITQ1 4:1031Punt0–14
BUFQ1 3:123-4Punt0–14
PITQ1 1:431179Turnover0–14
BUFQ2 10:52880Touchdown0–21
PITQ2 7:0133Punt0–21
BUFQ2 6:04748Missed field goal0–21
PITQ2 2:14533Touchdown7–21
BUFQ2 1:3937End of half7–21
BUFQ3 15:0032Punt7–21
PITQ3 13:24848Field goal10–21
BUFQ3 8:501348Field goal10–24
PITQ3 1:321275Touchdown17–24
BUFQ4 10:32850Touchdown17–31
PITQ4 6:2747Turnover on downs17–31
BUFQ4 4:50723Missed field goal17–31
PITQ4 1:571045End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph22/3922921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren8384.80
Najee Harris12373.10
Mason Rudolph2168.00
George Pickens11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth58760
George Pickens511500
Diontae Johnson47481
Jaylen Warren22160
Najee Harris23150
Allen Robinson23120
Calvin Austin III1271
Darnell Washington0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen21/3020330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook18794.40
Josh Allen8749.31
Ty Johnson8263.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Kincaid36591
Stefon Diggs79520
Deonte Harty11340
Khalil Shakir33311
Latavius Murray22130
Dawson Knox1291
James Cook4450
Andy Isabella0100
Ty Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.77
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.25