Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.097
- 42.3%Success rate48.4%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.010
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.21CPOE+4.96
- 37.3%Third-down rate49.7%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.54Points / drive2.33
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 22/39 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/30 | 203 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| James Cook | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.77
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.25