Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.106
- 40.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.132
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +3.44CPOE-1.94
- 44.1%Third-down rate38.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.89Points / drive1.49
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/33 | 246 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 36 | 151 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 23/45 | 265 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 5 | 104 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 7 | 15 | 68 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.88