2010 · Week 12

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

19·16

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 36°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.106
  • 40.3%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.132
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +3.44CPOE-1.94
  • 44.1%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.49
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
PITQ1 15:001473Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 7:06412Punt7–0
PITQ1 5:571356Field goal10–0
BUFQ2 14:4531Punt10–0
PITQ2 13:051437Punt10–0
BUFQ2 4:55838Punt10–0
PITQ2 1:42859Field goal13–0
BUFQ2 0:0300End of half13–0
BUFQ3 15:001158Turnover13–0
PITQ3 8:29646Punt13–0
BUFQ3 4:54570Touchdown13–7
PITQ3 3:4538Punt13–7
BUFQ3 2:171152Field goal13–10
PITQ4 13:3212Turnover13–10
BUFQ4 13:1239Field goal13–13
PITQ4 11:25960Field goal16–13
BUFQ4 6:19732Turnover16–13
PITQ4 2:51730Punt16–13
BUFQ4 0:46423Field goal16–16
PITQ4 0:0200End of half16–16
BUFOT37Punt16–16
PITOT3-3Punt16–16
BUFOT627Punt16–16
PITOT1258Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger20/3324600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall361514.21
Isaac Redman5255.00
Ben Roethlisberger11818.00
Mewelde Moore3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward781070
Heath Miller47460
Mewelde Moore45330
Mike Wallace35330
Emmanuel Sanders25270
Rashard Mendenhall0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick23/4526511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson12594.90
Quinton Ganther3113.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Jackson551041
Steve Johnson715680
David Nelson67580
Donald Jones28170
Lee Evans1790
Quinton Ganther2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.88