2013 · Week 10

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

10·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.001
  • 39.7%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.173
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.82CPOE+3.30
  • 33.7%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.82
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–PIT
PITQ1 15:00939Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 10:15925Field goal3–0
PITQ1 6:163-3Punt3–0
BUFQ1 5:2034Punt3–0
PITQ1 4:0039Punt3–0
BUFQ1 1:5236Punt3–0
PITQ1 0:331258Field goal3–3
BUFQ2 8:47728Punt3–3
PITQ2 6:43986Touchdown3–10
BUFQ2 1:55519Punt3–10
PITQ2 0:41424End of half3–10
BUFQ3 15:00824Punt3–10
PITQ3 11:22620Punt3–10
BUFQ3 7:58429Punt3–10
PITQ3 6:05653Touchdown3–17
BUFQ3 3:0237Punt3–17
PITQ3 2:253-9Punt3–17
BUFQ3 1:05516Punt3–17
PITQ4 14:02722Punt3–17
BUFQ4 9:4710Turnover3–17
PITQ4 9:313-5Field goal3–20
BUFQ4 8:003-18Punt3–20
PITQ4 6:1036Field goal3–23
BUFQ4 4:341687Touchdown10–23
PITQ4 0:0300End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel22/3915511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson12554.60
C.J. Spiller8232.90
EJ Manuel2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson310480
Chris Gragg46251
Scott Chandler33210
Chris Hogan11160
Marcus Easley22130
C.J. Spiller33110
Marquise Goodwin2490
Fred Jackson3470
Trevor Graham1450
Lee Smith0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/3020411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell22572.61
Jonathan Dwyer6386.30
Emmanuel Sanders12525.00
Felix Jones4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown6111040
Le'Veon Bell33390
Jerricho Cotchery22311
Emmanuel Sanders46130
Michael Palmer1180
Heath Miller1560
Jonathan Dwyer1130
Markus Wheaton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.66