Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.001
- 39.7%Success rate42.4%
- -0.107EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.173
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.82CPOE+3.30
- 33.7%Third-down rate37.6%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.33Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 22/39 | 155 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Marcus Easley | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/30 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 22 | 57 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66