2022 · Week 5

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

3·38

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf

Closing spread

BUF -14

Total

44

Model margin

+3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.111
  • 45.1%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback+0.203
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.064
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.33CPOE+0.35
  • 43.5%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.48
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00398Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 13:5600Missed field goal0–7
BUFQ1 13:5240Missed field goal0–7
PITQ1 11:561150Field goal3–7
BUFQ1 5:38648Field goal3–10
PITQ1 2:41414Punt3–10
BUFQ1 0:34978Turnover3–10
PITQ2 11:2538Punt3–16
BUFQ2 9:39162Touchdown3–17
PITQ2 9:2932Punt3–17
BUFQ2 7:53238Touchdown3–24
PITQ2 7:20860Missed field goal3–24
BUFQ2 3:39877Touchdown3–31
PITQ2 1:0235Turnover3–31
BUFQ2 0:1510End of half3–31
PITQ3 15:00948Turnover on downs3–31
BUFQ3 10:381175Turnover3–31
PITQ3 5:19973Missed field goal3–31
BUFQ4 15:00265Touchdown3–38
PITQ4 14:031045Turnover on downs3–38
BUFQ4 10:1639Punt3–38
PITQ4 8:2630Punt3–38
BUFQ4 7:2735Punt3–38
PITQ4 6:261259Turnover on downs3–38
BUFQ4 1:0000End of half3–38

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett34/5232701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren5244.80
Najee Harris11201.80
Kenny Pickett11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens68830
Diontae Johnson513600
Chase Claypool59500
Zach Gentry56430
Jaylen Warren45390
Najee Harris34160
Pat Freiermuth22120
Miles Boykin11110

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen20/3142441
Case Keenum2/5800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen5428.40
Devin Singletary6427.00
James Cook4317.81
Zack Moss177.00
Case Keenum2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis361712
Stefon Diggs8111021
Khalil Shakir35751
Isaiah Hodgins46410
Quintin Morris35390
Devin Singletary1240
Tanner Gentry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.09