Closing spread
BUF -14
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.111
- 45.1%Success rate49.0%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.203
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.064
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.33CPOE+0.35
- 43.5%Third-down rate51.1%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.65Points / drive2.48
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 34/52 | 327 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 13 | 60 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/31 | 424 | 4 | 1 |
| Case Keenum | 2/5 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 171 | 2 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 102 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tanner Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09