Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+5.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.091
- 40.2%Success rate47.4%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.66CPOE+1.95
- 39.0%Third-down rate47.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.65Points / drive2.52
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/32 | 188 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 10 | 36 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30/51 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 13 | 69 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | 13 | 60 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.05