2021 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·16

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 73°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

+5.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.091
  • 40.2%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.048
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.66CPOE+1.95
  • 39.0%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.52
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2016 · W14PIT @ BUF27–20PIT
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0035Field goal0–3
PITQ1 13:30522Punt0–3
BUFQ1 10:351253Punt0–3
PITQ1 5:0535Punt0–3
BUFQ1 3:5039Punt0–3
PITQ1 2:41625Punt0–3
BUFQ2 14:01734Punt0–3
PITQ2 10:5832Punt0–3
BUFQ2 9:323-8Turnover0–3
PITQ2 8:3840Punt0–3
BUFQ2 6:011596Touchdown0–10
PITQ2 0:2200End of half0–10
PITQ3 15:001064Field goal3–10
BUFQ3 10:231240Turnover on downs3–10
PITQ3 5:481062Field goal6–10
BUFQ3 1:47827Turnover on downs6–10
PITQ4 13:42526Touchdown13–10
BUFQ4 11:193-2Opp touchdown20–10
BUFQ4 9:45867Field goal20–13
PITQ4 5:23949Field goal23–13
BUFQ4 2:421150Field goal23–16
PITQ4 0:4600End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/3218810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris16452.80
Chase Claypool12525.00
Ben Roethlisberger451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster48520
Chase Claypool35450
Diontae Johnson510361
Pat Freiermuth11240
Eric Ebron12190
James Washington22100
Najee Harris1340
Zach Gentry11-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen30/5127010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary11726.50
Josh Allen9444.90
Matt Breida441.00
Isaiah McKenzie1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs913690
Cole Beasley813600
Emmanuel Sanders48520
Dawson Knox44410
Gabe Davis25401
Devin Singletary3580

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.05