Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.056
- 46.0%Success rate44.9%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.028
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.74CPOE+0.94
- 41.9%Third-down rate41.7%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.24Points / drive2.08
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/31 | 220 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 38 | 236 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Ladarius Green | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 15/25 | 228 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24