2016 · Week 14

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

27·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 27°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBills
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.056
  • 46.0%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.043EPA / rush+0.028
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.74CPOE+0.94
  • 41.9%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.08
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13BUF @ PIT26–7BUF
2023 · playoffsPIT @ BUF17–31BUF
2022 · W5PIT @ BUF3–38BUF
2021 · W1PIT @ BUF23–16PIT
2020 · W14PIT @ BUF15–26BUF
2019 · W15BUF @ PIT17–10BUF
2013 · W10BUF @ PIT10–23PIT
2010 · W12PIT @ BUF19–16PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BUF
PITQ1 15:00963Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 10:343-2Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:06871Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 6:0071Punt7–0
PITQ1 2:141061Touchdown14–0
BUFQ2 12:00518Punt14–0
PITQ2 9:3020Turnover14–0
BUFQ2 8:34417Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 7:07624Punt14–7
BUFQ2 4:36525Punt14–7
PITQ2 2:24420Punt14–7
BUFQ2 0:32434End of half14–7
BUFQ3 15:00614Punt14–7
PITQ3 12:011087Touchdown21–7
BUFQ3 5:28411Punt21–7
PITQ3 3:581053Turnover21–7
BUFQ4 13:4310Turnover21–7
PITQ4 13:31529Field goal24–7
BUFQ4 9:57582Touchdown24–13
PITQ4 7:27854Field goal27–13
BUFQ4 3:38875Touchdown27–20
PITQ4 1:2500End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/3122003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell382366.23
Fitzgerald Toussaint166.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown511780
Le'Veon Bell45620
Ladarius Green26250
Eli Rogers33200
David Johnson11150
Cobi Hamilton12150
Jesse James1350

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor15/2522821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee23417.00
LeSean McCoy12272.31
Reggie Bush144.00
Tyrod Taylor320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy67810
Sammy Watkins46541
Charles Clay36521
Robert Woods13290
Nick O'Leary11120
Marquise Goodwin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.24