2025 · Week 14

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

34·39

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 31°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

54.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBills
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.145
  • 46.4%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.230
  • +0.012EPA / rush+0.039
  • 7.4%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +1.28CPOE+3.77
  • 44.3%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.73
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BUF
CINQ1 15:001467Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 6:44769Field goal7–3
CINQ1 1:54655Touchdown14–3
BUFQ2 13:331270Touchdown14–11
CINQ2 7:27936Touchdown21–11
BUFQ2 3:18530Turnover on downs21–11
CINQ2 1:1153Punt21–11
BUFQ2 0:1000End of half21–11
BUFQ3 15:001056Touchdown21–18
CINQ3 9:2032Punt21–18
BUFQ3 8:091375Turnover21–18
CINQ3 0:461375Touchdown28–18
BUFQ4 8:44468Touchdown28–25
CINQ4 7:33434Opp touchdown28–32
CINQ4 5:2510Turnover28–32
BUFQ4 5:11639Touchdown28–39
CINQ4 3:03466Touchdown34–39
BUFQ4 2:13312End of half34–39

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3628442

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine6315.20
Chase Brown12231.91
Ja'Marr Chase188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins611922
Mike Gesicki66861
Ja'Marr Chase58440
Andrei Iosivas23170
Noah Fant12150
Chase Brown34121
Tanner Hudson11110
Samaje Perine1170

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/2825130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook18804.40
Josh Allen9788.71
Ty Johnson22512.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox67930
Dalton Kincaid45411
James Cook22310
Gabe Davis22210
Khalil Shakir23161
Tyrell Shavers11160
Keon Coleman23160
Ty Johnson23140
Jackson Hawes1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.26
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.15