Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
54.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.145
- 46.4%Success rate48.8%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.230
- +0.012EPA / rush+0.039
- 7.4%Explosive rate11.0%
- +1.28CPOE+3.77
- 44.3%Third-down rate46.0%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.93Points / drive2.73
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/36 | 284 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 11 | 92 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 6 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/28 | 251 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.26
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.15