2022 · DIV

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

27·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 32°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBills
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.111
  • 47.8%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.064
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.74CPOE+0.35
  • 47.3%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.27Points / drive2.48
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BUF
CINQ1 15:00679Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 11:4036Punt7–0
CINQ1 10:021167Touchdown14–0
BUFQ1 3:4735Punt14–0
CINQ1 2:11614Punt14–0
BUFQ1 0:061685Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 7:251370Field goal17–7
BUFQ2 1:49739Punt17–7
CINQ2 0:40544End of half17–7
BUFQ3 15:001365Field goal17–10
CINQ3 7:421371Touchdown24–10
BUFQ3 1:1738Punt24–10
CINQ3 0:02935Field goal27–10
BUFQ4 11:221064Turnover on downs27–10
CINQ4 7:23833Punt27–10
BUFQ4 2:32853Turnover27–10
CINQ4 1:0200End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3624220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon201055.31
Samaje Perine7334.70
Joe Burrow6315.20
Ja'Marr Chase133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase58611
Hayden Hurst56591
Samaje Perine55310
Tee Higgins34280
Tyler Boyd12230
Joe Mixon23180
Trenton Irwin12130
Mitchell Wilcox1290

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen25/4226401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen8263.31
Devin Singletary6254.20
James Cook5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox57650
Khalil Shakir22400
Devin Singletary58370
Stefon Diggs410350
Gabe Davis24340
Cole Beasley34330
Isaiah McKenzie22100
Quintin Morris1260
Nyheim Hines1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.29