Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.111
- 47.8%Success rate49.0%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.064
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.74CPOE+0.35
- 47.3%Third-down rate51.1%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.27Points / drive2.48
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/36 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 20 | 105 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 25/42 | 264 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29