2015 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

34·21

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 40°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBills
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.025
  • 45.3%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.039
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +4.53CPOE+2.97
  • 39.6%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.83
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001180Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:2137Punt0–7
BUFQ1 7:4337Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:09744Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 3:2637Turnover7–7
CINQ1 2:2669Punt7–7
BUFQ2 14:0937Punt7–7
CINQ2 12:30555Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 10:1934Punt14–7
CINQ2 8:4637Field goal17–7
BUFQ2 7:121591Touchdown17–14
CINQ2 0:1700End of half17–14
CINQ3 15:00890Touchdown24–14
BUFQ3 10:55836Punt24–14
CINQ3 6:231278Touchdown31–14
BUFQ3 1:4234Punt31–14
CINQ3 0:47950Field goal34–14
BUFQ4 10:40980Touchdown34–21
CINQ4 6:50617Punt34–21
BUFQ4 3:031152Turnover on downs34–21
CINQ4 0:4000End of half34–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3324330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill16563.50
Giovani Bernard8506.31
Mohamed Sanu188.00
Andy Dalton3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones912951
A.J. Green47360
Mohamed Sanu24300
Tyler Eifert44301
Giovani Bernard12230
Ryan Hewitt12160
Jeremy Hill11131

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel28/4226311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy17905.31
EJ Manuel6223.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay913620
Chris Gragg55540
Sammy Watkins45481
Robert Woods46470
Chris Hogan25310
Dan Herron22170
LeSean McCoy2440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.09