Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.025
- 45.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.039
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- +4.53CPOE+2.97
- 39.6%Third-down rate38.1%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.83
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/33 | 243 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 9 | 12 | 95 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 28/42 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 |
| EJ Manuel | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 9 | 13 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.09