Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.076
- 43.4%Success rate39.7%
- +0.109EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.037
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.24CPOE-3.82
- 41.9%Third-down rate33.7%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.76Points / drive1.33
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/40 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Lewis | 19/32 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Thad Lewis | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Graham | 4 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.99