2013 · Week 6

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

27·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Thaddeus Lewis

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 65°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

41

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBills
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.076
  • 43.4%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.037
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.24CPOE-3.82
  • 41.9%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.33
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BUF
CINQ1 15:00652Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 12:14665Touchdown3–7
CINQ1 10:01888Touchdown10–7
BUFQ1 5:261660Turnover on downs10–7
CINQ2 13:41998Touchdown17–7
BUFQ2 8:34930Field goal17–10
CINQ2 4:14646Turnover17–10
BUFQ2 1:443-10Punt17–10
CINQ2 0:2912End of half17–10
BUFQ3 15:00524Turnover17–10
CINQ3 13:40940Touchdown24–10
BUFQ3 10:493-8Punt24–10
CINQ3 9:411664Missed field goal24–10
BUFQ3 1:15519Punt24–10
CINQ4 14:4832Punt24–10
BUFQ4 12:46845Touchdown24–17
CINQ4 10:1361Punt24–17
BUFQ4 7:1335Punt24–17
CINQ4 6:03620Punt24–17
BUFQ4 2:40786Touchdown24–24
CINQ4 1:08414Punt24–24
BUFQ4 0:1200End of half24–24
CINOT750Punt24–24
BUFOT37Punt24–24
CINOT38Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/4033731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis18864.80
Marvin Jones13434.00
Giovani Bernard15281.90
Andy Dalton7172.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green6111031
Giovani Bernard67721
Marvin Jones35711
Mohamed Sanu56440
Dane Sanzenbacher11230
Tyler Eifert23130
Brandon Tate1160
Jermaine Gresham2450
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Thad Lewis19/3221620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller10555.50
Fred Jackson10353.50
Tashard Choice4246.00
Thad Lewis7172.41
Marquise Goodwin1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trevor Graham46740
Marquise Goodwin23511
Scott Chandler24471
Fred Jackson45130
C.J. Spiller22110
Tashard Choice2390
Robert Woods2690
Chris Hogan1320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.99