2019 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

17·21

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 83°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBills
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.3%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -5.27CPOE-2.62
  • 36.0%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.56
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:2035Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:26958Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:03411Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:08760Touchdown0–8
CINQ1 3:0332Punt0–8
BUFQ1 1:061161Field goal0–11
CINQ2 10:2917Turnover0–11
BUFQ2 10:20725Turnover0–11
CINQ2 7:2333Punt0–11
BUFQ2 5:05517Field goal0–14
CINQ2 2:11516Punt0–14
BUFQ2 1:23536Missed field goal0–14
CINQ2 0:02132Turnover0–14
CINQ3 15:00413Punt0–14
BUFQ3 12:50524Punt0–14
CINQ3 9:19311Turnover0–14
BUFQ3 8:1133Turnover0–14
CINQ3 7:12322Touchdown7–14
BUFQ3 5:50635Punt7–14
CINQ3 3:001282Touchdown14–14
BUFQ4 12:27520Punt14–14
CINQ4 9:06860Field goal17–14
BUFQ4 4:54778Touchdown17–21
CINQ4 1:50942Turnover17–21
BUFQ4 0:1200End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3625012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon15604.00
Giovani Bernard351.70
Andy Dalton111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Auden Tate610880
Tyler Boyd611680
Joe Mixon22341
John Ross26220
Tyler Eifert11180
Alex Erickson11130
Giovani Bernard2270
C.J. Uzomah0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3624311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14765.41
Josh Allen9465.10
T.J. Yeldon8303.80
Isaiah McKenzie3103.30
Dawson Knox199.00
John Brown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox34671
John Brown45510
Cole Beasley810480
Zay Jones23330
T.J. Yeldon23190
Frank Gore22130
Isaiah McKenzie1190
Tommy Sweeney1330
Lee Smith0100
Robert Foster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.94