Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.023
- 40.3%Success rate41.8%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.27CPOE-2.62
- 36.0%Third-down rate35.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.31Points / drive1.56
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/36 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auden Tate | 6 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| John Ross | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/36 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 76 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| John Brown | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94