Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.052
- 44.9%Success rate45.3%
- +0.076EPA / dropback+0.116
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.050
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.94CPOE+2.98
- 41.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.08Points / drive1.86
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 19/27 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/43 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| James Wright | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.08