2016 · Week 11

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

16·12

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

48

Model margin

+2.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBengals
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.052
  • 44.9%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback+0.116
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.050
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.94CPOE+2.98
  • 41.7%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.86
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CIN
CINQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:15980Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 8:521450Touchdown7–6
BUFQ1 2:34413Punt7–6
CINQ2 14:54930Turnover7–6
BUFQ2 11:0845Field goal10–6
CINQ2 9:031361Touchdown10–12
BUFQ2 3:10948Turnover10–12
CINQ2 0:47543Turnover10–12
BUFQ2 0:0313End of half10–12
BUFQ3 15:00732Field goal13–12
CINQ3 10:25523Punt13–12
BUFQ3 8:06414Punt13–12
CINQ3 6:2730Punt13–12
BUFQ3 5:171493Field goal16–12
CINQ4 12:0531Punt16–12
BUFQ4 11:00528Punt16–12
CINQ4 8:1935Punt16–12
BUFQ4 7:1933Punt16–12
CINQ4 5:3338Punt16–12
BUFQ4 4:14523Punt16–12
CINQ4 2:301173End of half16–12

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor19/2716601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee14725.10
Tyrod Taylor9394.30
LeSean McCoy5336.61
Jonathan Williams4266.50
Percy Harvin11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Tate23480
Robert Woods33410
Charles Clay57230
Reggie Bush22210
Marquise Goodwin23150
LeSean McCoy23120
Percy Harvin2460
Mike Gillislee0100
Jonathan Williams1100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/4320712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill16623.90
Giovani Bernard7213.00
Andy Dalton4102.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd68541
Giovani Bernard58400
Tyler Eifert36370
Brandon LaFell49320
James Wright23220
Rex Burkhead11140
Alex Erickson1270
Jeremy Hill2210
A.J. Green0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.08