Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.088
- 39.0%Success rate39.2%
- -0.024EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.28CPOE-1.89
- 42.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.47Points / drive1.49
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 20/37 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick O'Leary | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/36 | 328 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 13 | 189 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09