2017 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

16·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

39

Model margin

+2.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBengals
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.088
  • 39.0%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.28CPOE-1.89
  • 42.2%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.49
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CIN
CINQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:0432Punt0–6
CINQ1 11:39177Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 11:29623Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:31728Punt0–7
BUFQ1 4:20972Field goal3–7
CINQ1 0:101153Field goal3–10
BUFQ2 9:01721Punt3–10
CINQ2 4:5210Turnover3–10
BUFQ2 4:44623Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 3:1039Punt10–10
BUFQ2 1:541044Punt10–10
CINQ2 0:1710End of half10–10
BUFQ3 15:0032Punt10–10
CINQ3 13:3337Turnover10–10
BUFQ3 12:1140Punt10–10
CINQ3 10:18869Turnover10–10
BUFQ3 6:34932Field goal13–10
CINQ3 1:54854Touchdown13–17
BUFQ4 14:5575Punt13–17
CINQ4 11:4631Punt13–17
BUFQ4 10:3732Field goal16–17
CINQ4 8:591059Field goal16–20
BUFQ4 3:333-5Turnover16–20
CINQ4 2:14212End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor20/3716611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19633.30
Tyrod Taylor133.00
Kaelin Clay100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick O'Leary56540
Charles Clay23310
LeSean McCoy69260
Brandon Tate24251
Zay Jones1690
Logan Thomas1230
Andre Holmes0100
Kaelin Clay0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3632812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon15513.41
Jeremy Hill4164.00
Andy Dalton520.40
Giovani Bernard221.00
Alex Erickson1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green7131891
Tyler Kroft45380
Brandon LaFell58320
Giovani Bernard22300
C.J. Uzomah12210
Alex Erickson11120
Tyler Boyd2260
Cethan Carter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.09