Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play-0.030
- 44.6%Success rate41.7%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.64CPOE-2.19
- 30.9%Third-down rate35.5%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.56Points / drive1.55
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/34 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/36 | 298 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 4 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43