2011 · Week 4

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBengals
  • -0.000EPA / play-0.030
  • 44.6%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.64CPOE-2.19
  • 30.9%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.55
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CIN
BUFQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:33529Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:3236Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:543-3Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:0836Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:06829Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 2:02856Field goal3–3
CINQ2 13:3334Punt3–3
BUFQ2 12:1134Punt3–3
CINQ2 10:44924Punt3–3
BUFQ2 5:3949Punt3–3
CINQ2 3:2920Opp touchdown10–3
CINQ2 3:10458Turnover10–3
BUFQ2 2:13576Touchdown17–3
CINQ2 0:40424End of half17–3
CINQ3 15:00683Field goal17–6
BUFQ3 11:233-2Punt17–6
CINQ3 9:21772Touchdown17–13
BUFQ3 5:261675Field goal20–13
CINQ4 11:2232Punt20–13
BUFQ4 9:5439Punt20–13
CINQ4 8:281080Touchdown20–20
BUFQ4 4:09417Punt20–20
CINQ4 1:48656Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3419900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson17663.91
C.J. Spiller3124.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson46580
Fred Jackson58320
Naaman Roosevelt11280
Brad Smith24250
Donald Jones38210
David Nelson23180
C.J. Spiller1190
Scott Chandler2280

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/3629812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson191045.50
Brian Leonard4369.00
Bernard Scott5132.60
Andy Dalton3124.01
A.J. Green166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green4101180
Jermaine Gresham47701
Andrew Hawkins23430
Jerome Simpson33260
Andre Caldwell25170
Brian Leonard12150
Bernard Scott2290
Cedric Benson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

6.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.43