2023 · Week 9

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

18·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -1.5

Total

51

Model margin

-0.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBengals
  • +0.097EPA / play+0.001
  • 48.4%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.050
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.103
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.96CPOE+2.09
  • 49.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.33Points / drive1.91
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN
2011 · W4BUF @ CIN20–23CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CIN
CINQ1 15:00976Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:18785Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 6:031254Touchdown7–14
BUFQ1 0:3551Punt7–14
CINQ2 13:55635Punt7–14
BUFQ2 9:0720Turnover7–14
CINQ2 8:5454Punt7–14
BUFQ2 5:383-1Punt7–14
CINQ2 3:29745Touchdown7–21
BUFQ2 1:37537End of half7–21
BUFQ3 15:001163Field goal10–21
CINQ3 10:21734Punt10–21
BUFQ3 6:2435Punt10–21
CINQ3 5:06623Turnover on downs10–21
BUFQ3 2:13952Turnover10–21
CINQ4 13:181185Field goal10–24
BUFQ4 8:081275Touchdown18–24
CINQ4 3:32444End of half18–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen26/3825811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen8445.51
James Cook6203.30
Latavius Murray242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs67861
Dalton Kincaid1011810
Khalil Shakir44570
James Cook44190
Trent Sherfield1290
Latavius Murray1160
Deonte Harty0100
Gabe Davis0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow31/4434820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14372.61
Trayveon Williams3134.30
Joe Burrow540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins891100
Tyler Boyd35560
Tanner Hudson45450
Ja'Marr Chase48410
Joe Mixon56310
Drew Sample34301
Irv Smith34261
Andrei Iosivas1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.93