Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
51
Model margin
-0.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.001
- 48.4%Success rate44.4%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.050
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.96CPOE+2.09
- 49.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.33Points / drive1.91
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/38 | 258 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| James Cook | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 31/44 | 348 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Trayveon Williams | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.93