2025 · Week 16

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

23·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BUF -10.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.145EPA / play-0.176
  • 48.8%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback-0.212
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.115
  • 11.0%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +3.77CPOE-5.66
  • 46.0%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 2.73Points / drive1.18
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00869Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 10:42580Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 7:47842Turnover7–7
BUFQ1 2:55961Touchdown13–7
CLEQ2 12:541265Field goal13–10
BUFQ2 5:38768Touchdown20–10
CLEQ2 2:233-2Punt20–10
BUFQ2 1:363-12Punt20–10
CLEQ2 0:0620End of half20–10
BUFQ3 15:0038Punt20–10
CLEQ3 12:46412Turnover20–10
BUFQ3 10:3932Field goal23–10
CLEQ3 9:371567Touchdown23–17
BUFQ3 1:36736Turnover on downs23–17
CLEQ4 13:30743Field goal23–20
BUFQ4 8:463-12Punt23–20
CLEQ4 7:054-5Turnover on downs23–20
BUFQ4 5:02519Turnover on downs23–20
CLEQ4 2:4743Punt23–20
BUFQ4 1:38311End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen12/1913000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook161177.32
Josh Allen7172.40
Ty Johnson3165.31
Ray Davis3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir45340
Jackson Hawes22260
Tyrell Shavers12210
Ray Davis22200
James Cook12170
Dawson Knox12100
Josh Palmer1120
Brandin Cooks0100
Dalton Kincaid0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders20/2915712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shedeur Sanders44912.30
Raheim Sanders11423.80
Malachi Corley33010.00
Quinshon Judkins8222.80
Trayveon Williams3175.70
Harold Fannin Jr.111.01
Isaiah Bond1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trayveon Williams44380
Harold Fannin Jr.46341
Quinshon Judkins56290
Jerry Jeudy34120
Malachi Corley24110
Cedric Tillman1180
Raheim Sanders1140
Brenden Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.87