Closing spread
BUF -10.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play-0.176
- 48.8%Success rate35.2%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.212
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.115
- 11.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- +3.77CPOE-5.66
- 46.0%Third-down rate33.8%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.73Points / drive1.18
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12/19 | 130 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 16 | 117 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 20/29 | 157 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trayveon Williams | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brenden Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.87