Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
42
Model margin
+0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.027
- 41.8%Success rate41.3%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.62CPOE-3.23
- 35.9%Third-down rate36.3%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.56Points / drive1.80
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/41 | 266 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 26/38 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 9 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49