2019 · Week 10

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

16·19

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

42

Model margin

+0.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Nothing filed.

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.027
  • 41.8%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.62CPOE-3.23
  • 35.9%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.80
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–6
BUFQ1 12:0956Turnover on downs0–6
CLEQ1 10:321658Turnover on downs0–6
BUFQ1 3:1336Punt0–6
CLEQ1 1:3938Punt0–6
BUFQ2 14:49976Touchdown7–6
CLEQ2 10:091274Field goal7–9
BUFQ2 3:351168Missed field goal7–9
CLEQ2 0:17319End of half7–9
BUFQ3 15:00727Punt9–9
CLEQ3 11:001-8Safety9–9
BUFQ3 10:53422Punt9–9
CLEQ3 8:501051Field goal9–12
BUFQ3 3:49924Turnover on downs9–12
CLEQ4 15:0031Punt9–12
BUFQ4 13:27524Punt9–12
CLEQ4 11:2549Punt9–12
BUFQ4 9:10851Touchdown16–12
CLEQ4 5:261082Touchdown16–19
BUFQ4 1:44740Missed field goal16–19
CLEQ4 0:1700End of half16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/4126600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary8425.30
Josh Allen6284.72
Frank Gore5122.40
Patrick DiMarco122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown511770
Cole Beasley46740
Dawson Knox46550
Robert Foster11200
Isaiah McKenzie24190
Devin Singletary3680
Andre Roberts1370
Frank Gore1140
Patrick DiMarco1120

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield26/3823820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201165.80
Kareem Hunt4307.50
Baker Mayfield210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry910971
Odell Beckham Jr.512570
Kareem Hunt79440
Demetrius Harris22280
Rashard Higgins1171
Nick Chubb2450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49